... what’s their “theory of change� ...
One common theory is that the two parties are so
far apart that this election, finally, will provide a mandate for the winner
and shock the losing side into cooperating. “We’re going to have as stark a
contrast as we’ve seen in a very long time between the two candidates,â€
... Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.), speaking at the Reagan
library in California, was even more emphatic: “If we make the case
effectively and win this November, then we will have the moral authority to
enact the kind of fundamental reforms America has not seen since Ronald
Reagan’s first year.â€
...
McCarthy, of course, was right. Minorities don’t become majorities by
helping the other party govern successfully. When things go well, voters
reward the party in charge. More often, they become majorities by grinding
the gears of government to a halt, amping up partisanship and doing all they
can to make voters disgusted with Washington. The belief that minority
politicians will clap majority colleagues on the back, mutter “good game,â€
and get out of the way is fantasy.
...
Fiscal policy is a special case in which the consequences of gridlock will
make action necessary and Senate rules make passage easier. On most issues,
neither Obama nor Romney is likely to have the votes or cross-party
cooperation to get much done. Washington is too bitterly polarized for that,
and the U.S. political system is too easy to stymie. If voters don’t like
that state of affairs — if we want elections to produce leaders who can
govern effectively — then the question, really, is what our theory of change
is.
2-4-8 Response
My "theory of change" in tax reform is simply to have
the best plan and hope that a lot of the members of congress will agree.
From a social science perspective Washington’s lack of
serious study of “all†tax reform options is unconscionable. Given the scope
and magnitude of our economic malaise, this scholarship should be pushed
like the 1939 Manhattan Project. Instead, President Obama appointed the
Simpson-Bowles Commission but they were not permitted to consider a VAT or
net wealth tax.
From a political perspective however, it is
understandable why the leadership of both parties might want to avoid
documenting the unintended consequences of their respective failed
approaches. When the economy is askew, Democrats see the wisdom of creating
better consumers (and votes) by borrowing money for entitlement programs
which do not create sustainable jobs. Republicans see the wisdom of lowering
the tax rates and other tax expenditures (instead of direct spending) to
encourage investment by business (even without a solid consumer base). The
tax incentives (“loopholesâ€) yield little because there are few consumers
(although a few businesses may be able to export). At least businesses are
able to profit (and continue political contributions) during the economic
downturn. The tax expenditures also keep many business going that should
fail for the greater good of making their competitors stronger (rather than
making all a little weaker).
A consumption tax is regressive and will not heal
consumers, even though a small VAT is admittedly an optimal means of fairly
taxing business (and used by every developed country in the world except the
arrogant USA). Economic recovery requires a net wealth tax - the nuclear
option in tax reform (efficient, fair, powerful [i.e. $55 trillion base] and
controversial) as an essential component. In one sentence:
Tax individual and corporate income at a flat 8% rate
(with no deductions, credits or loopholes), tax individual net wealth at 2%
(excluding $15,000 cash and retirement funds) and impose a 4% Value Added
Sales Tax (VAT) on business.
The 2-4-8 Tax Blend has the lowest rates and will
produce about $500 billion more than current federal revenue [around 18.5%
of GDP] with no need for payroll, estate, and capital gains taxes or
deferral of foreign income. A typical family would have an after tax take
home boost of about $641 per month. The economy would recover quickly and
remain stable.
Eugene Patrick Devany, JD, MPA
Read more at www.TaxNetWealth.com
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